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The western Mediterranean has been sizzling in recent years, with the summers of 2022 and 2023 breaking records and exceeding natural climate variations of the last 1,000 years. Temperatures soared to anomalies of +3.6 and +2.9 degrees, respectively, leaving scientists concerned about the increase in extreme weather events like heatwaves and violent storms.

 

Research led by the Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC) and published in the journal Nature npj Climate and Atmospheric Sciences reveals that climate change is driving these extreme phenomena and bringing them forward in time.

 

Predictions had suggested that such events wouldn't occur until the end of the 21st century, but it seems that's no longer the case.

 

Based on the recent data, the research teams found that heatwaves, once considered extremely rare, could become more frequent - occurring every 4 to 75 years - under current conditions caused by human-induced climate change.

 

One key factor driving these heatwaves was the rapid increase in temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, which has recorded bath-like figures for the past few years. These temperature rises, which were twice as fast as the global average in 2022 and 2023, worsened heatwaves and droughts throughout Spain.

 

In fact, the climatic conditions of those two summers, in which there was less cloud cover from the Azores, favoured the arrival of hot air from the Sahara to Europe and set records in the number of hours of maximum solar radiation, the reduction of ice on the glaciers of the Pyrenees and the Alps and the decrease in river flow due to the extreme drought that caused the lack of rain in winter and spring.

 

“In the specific case of Spain, the temperature anomaly allows us to mark 2022 as the year with the highest temperature records since 1890,” MNCN researcher Ernesto Tejedor pointed out.

 

“Beyond the striking figures, the impact of the conditions caused by prolonged heat waves and droughts have seriously affected ecosystems, water services and biodiversity, as well as key sectors of the economy, such as tourism and agriculture,” he added.

 

The extreme conditions of 2022 caused it to be the second year in the ranking of burned surface in the western Mediterranean; the loss of carbon absorption capacity and more than 60,000 heat-related deaths in Europe, especially in countries such as Italy and Spain.

 

The study concludes that the extreme phenomena previously projected for the end of the 21st century are already occurring, which underlines the urgent need to adopt climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

 

According to the researchers, Mediterranean economies like Spain, dependent on tourism and agriculture, are increasingly vulnerable to these changes, which will affect the development of these sectors in the future.

 

“We must take significant adaptation and mitigation measures, as the heat waves predicted for the future are already occurring and will probably become more frequent in the coming years, with the social, economic and environmental consequences that this entails,” concluded Tejedor.

 

 

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