Spain weather forecast April 28-May 1: A cold spell could bring rain, storms and calima dust
Temperatures will soar across much of Spain, but a cold squall could bring storms, rain and suspended dust to some areas from midweek
Spain air mass satellite image
The final days of April and the start of May are set to bring significant changes in Spain’s weather, with a mixture of unusually high temperatures, possible storms and Saharan ‘calima’ dust from North Africa hanging in the air.
A cold squall approaching from the Atlantic will be the main driver behind these developments, although some uncertainty remains over its exact impact.
At the beginning of the week, the subtropical ridge will dominate, leading to a generalised rise in temperatures across the country. On Monday April 28, even regions in the north, such as Galicia and the Cantabrian coast, will experience highs well above the seasonal average.
Spain weather forecast, Monday April 28
By early Tuesday April 29, an isolated cold squall is forecast to form off the coast of Portugal. This type of system – known in meteorology as a low-pressure area detached from the main atmospheric flow – is associated with pockets of cold air at higher altitudes, which can trigger instability and severe weather events.
If the forecast scenario unfolds as predicted, the western half of the Iberian Peninsula could see significant thunderstorms from Wednesday 30 onwards. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean side is likely to remain under the influence of high pressure, resulting in very warm conditions and a notable influx of suspended dust from North Africa.
Spain weather forecast, Wednesday April 30
At the same time, rainfall is expected to be well above average in parts of western Spain. Galicia could see wet anomalies of up to +30 litres per square metre, while the west of Andalucía, Extremadura and Castilla y León could record around +10 litres per square metre more than usual. However, areas such as Catalonia and the Pyrenees are likely to experience a much drier week, with rainfall up to 30 litres per square metre below the norm.
Nevertheless, high uncertainty around the movement of the low-pressure system makes it difficult to pinpoint what will happen after that, and there is a possibility that the low weather system will remain stationary off the Portuguese coast, allowing the ridge to dominate the Iberian Peninsula more strongly. Should this occur, the expected storms would be much less intense, temperatures would rise further, and the quantity of suspended dust would be greater.
Throughout the week, much of Spain will experience almost summer-like temperatures, with anomalies between +3 and +6ºC above the seasonal average in the north and southern plateau, and between +1 and +3ºC elsewhere, including the Balearic and Canary Islands. Spain will be one of the European countries with the most pronounced temperature anomalies, alongside France, Great Britain, southern Germany, Switzerland and Austria.
Minimum and maximum temperatures in Spain, Thursday May 1
As the week progresses, all eyes will be on the evolution of the cold squall to see whether storms or an early taste of summer will define the weather across Spain.
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