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As the leaves begin to change colour across Europe and we head towards the fall equinox, Spain is preparing for yet another autumn that defies traditional seasonal expectations. While you might be reaching for that cosy jumper, the reality is that this fall will likely have you keeping those summer clothes within easy reach.

 

The forecast for autumn 2025 paints a picture of a country divided not just by geography, but by weather patterns. From the Pyrenees to Andalucía, temperatures are expected to climb well above the seasonal average, continuing a trend that has defined Spanish autumns for much of the 21st century.

 

The central regions, northern territories and Mediterranean coastline will feel the heat most intensely, creating what meteorologists describe as particularly warm conditions for the season.

 

But temperature is only half the story. Spain's rainfall patterns are set to create a fascinating meteorological divide, too. While the northern regions, eastern coastlines and the Canary Islands can expect roughly normal precipitation levels, the rest of the mainland faces a drier reality and potential drought.

 

This uneven distribution means that while some autonomous communities might experience the gentle autumn rains that traditionally mark the season, others will be left far too dry.

 

This doesn't mean that Spain is completely safe from dramatic weather events, though. The Mediterranean's notorious autumn instability remains a wild card in the forecast. Those familiar with Spain's weather patterns know that autumn brings the potential for sudden storms, intense rainfall and the formation of DANAs (isolated high-altitude depressions) that can unleash dramatic weather in a matter of hours.

 

Even in a generally drier autumn, these systems can still develop, potentially bringing localised but intense weather events, particularly along the Mediterranean coast.

 

The warmth expected this autumn becomes even more remarkable when you consider what's happening in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions are likely to emerge by September, with meteorologists putting the probability at 55% for the September to November period, rising to 60% for October through December.

 

Traditionally, La Niña's cooling effect on global weather patterns might be expected to temper the autumn heat, but climate change appears to be overpowering even this significant oceanic influence.

 

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, despite La Niña's typically cooling effects, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere, including Spain, are still forecast to remain well above average as we head into winter.

 

To put this autumn's forecast into perspective, it's worth remembering the fall of 2024. That season brought an average temperature of 15.5°C across mainland Spain, sitting 1.1°C above the long-term average and earning the distinction of being the seventh warmest autumn since 1961. The warmth was particularly pronounced in the Region of Murcia, southern Valencia and along Andalucía’s Mediterranean coast.

 

Last autumn also demonstrated the dramatic contrasts that Spanish weather can deliver. While it was notably warm, it was also exceptionally wet, with 236.5mm of rainfall representing 118% of normal levels.

 

The tragic October floods, particularly the devastating event in Turís, Valencia, where 772 litres per square metre fell in just 24 hours, served as a sobering reminder of autumn's potential for extreme weather. That single storm produced 185 litres of rainfall in just one hour on October 29, an unprecedented figure that made October 2024 the wettest on record since 1961.

 

The broader climate picture reveals a clear pattern. Since the 1980s, warm autumns have become increasingly common across Spain. More than half of the autumns recorded so far in the 21st century have registered temperatures above the 1991-2020 average, illustrating a consistent upward trend that shows no signs of slowing.

 

 

Image: Unsplash