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August is set to begin much as July ends, with blistering temperatures, tropical nights and little relief from the latest heatwave, the fourth so far of the summer season. But if the latest long-range forecasts prove accurate, Spain could be in line for a welcome change later in the month.

 

According to weather experts at Meteored, the European weather model suggests the intense heat gripping much of the country will continue into the first half of August, with temperatures remaining well above average across large areas of Spain.

 

The Mediterranean coast and the Pyrenees are expected to experience some of the biggest temperature anomalies, with daytime highs running 3ºC to 6ºC above normal for the time of year. Elsewhere, temperatures are generally forecast to remain 1ºC to 3ºC above average, extending what has already been an exceptionally hot summer.

 

The scorching conditions follow four heatwaves in quick succession, with high temperatures also contributing to several major wildfires and outbreaks of thunderstorms across the country in recent weeks.

 

However, forecasters believe the weather pattern could begin to shift during the week of August 10 to 17. Rather than another spell of relentless sunshine, computer models indicate that conditions may become increasingly unstable, bringing a greater chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms to parts of Spain.

 

At this stage, the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and some inland mountain areas appear the most likely to see storm activity increase as cooler air begins interacting with the lingering summer heat.

 

Meteorologist Samuel Biener stressed that forecasting rainfall weeks in advance is particularly difficult during summer because thunderstorms are highly localised and can change quickly.

 

While the forecast could still evolve over the coming days, the latest indications suggest Spain's relentless heat may finally ease during the second half of August, even if the trade-off is a more unsettled end to the month.