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Meteorologists in southern Spain might be wishing they could quietly slip away today after forecasts of torrential rain and flooding failed to materialise in many parts of the Valencian Community on Tuesday September 9.

 

The orange weather warning had everyone braced for a storm of epic proportions. But when the skies were supposed to open, much of the region was left looking up and asking the same question: where’s the rain?

 

Across Alicante, San Vicente, Orihuela and Elche, schools shut their doors and outdoor events were called off just in case. Yet in many of these towns, not even a drop of rain hit the ground.

 

It’s worth remembering that after the devastating DANA that hit the Valencian Community last October, authorities aren’t taking any chances. They’re likely erring on the side of caution, even if it means calling off classes and events for a storm that ends up passing most towns by.

 

The warning itself wasn’t exaggerated on paper: up to 40 litres per square metre in one hour, or in some areas along the northern coast, as much as 100 litres in 12 hours. Meteorologists also flagged the risk of large hail and strong gusts of wind.

 

Some places did see wild weather. Redován and Callosa d’en Sarrià experienced a dramatic wet blowout on Monday afternoon, while parts of the Marina Baixa recorded more than 70 litres of rainfall. But these were the exceptions rather than the rule.

 

So why the big gap between forecast and reality? According to the Mastral Project, a group that monitors the weather around Torrevieja, "the storms have developed further east than expected. As a consequence, the most intense precipitation has occurred at sea."

 

That explanation is backed up by Jorge Olcina, director of the UA Climatology Laboratory, who said the forecasts were always going to be tricky.

 

"It is not an easterly storm, with instability in the upper layers, for which you know that it will rain no matter what."

 

Mr Olcina added that "in the current situation there is no wind from the sea, as happens with the east storm, but rather the storms form in a few minutes and discharge, but in an anarchic way, without a fixed pattern."

And that, he explained, is why the alert was issued for the entire province.

 

"That is why a general warning is determined throughout the province because the storm can form at any point, but there are points where it does not even rain, such as in the city of Alicante."

 

Today, Wednesday September 10, the outlook across Alicante province couldn’t be more different. Instead of storm clouds, skies are mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the low 30s by the afternoon, making it feel like summer is very much still in charge.

 

 

Image: MeteOrihuela