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Global temperatures have been on the rise for several years now and 2024 turned out to be the third hottest 12-month period in Spain’s history. But we’re not done breaking records yet: the latest figures are in and last month is officially the warmest January of all time.

 

This actually caught scientists and meteorologists off guard, because the El Niño phenomenon usually needs to be active to create these unseasonably high temperatures. On the contrary, the Earth is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions, which in theory should result in a slight reduction in global temperatures.

 

 

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), both 2023 and 2024 saw temperatures hovering at or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold in climate science. The intense heat of 2024 was largely attributed to El Niño, which peaked in November 2023. As a result, many climatologists predicted that 2025 would be cooler as El Niño’s influence waned.

 

Yet, the latest analysis from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 shows that the first three weeks of January 2025 were the warmest on record, surpassing years like 2007, 2016, 2020 and 2024, all of which were heavily influenced by El Niño. Only in the final days of January did temperatures begin to drop, but not enough to offset the record-breaking monthly average.

 

The record-breaking January temperatures have left experts a bit stumped, but many believe that ocean warming could have contributed. The oceans absorb much of the atmospheric heat and high ocean temperatures can contribute to a warmer global climate. In addition, the reduction of the ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic may be accelerating the warming process, as darker areas absorb more solar radiation.

 

 

Looking ahead, meteorologists predict a potential drop in temperatures in February, as the Northern Hemisphere enters a natural cooling phase. However, the fact that January has already broken records has raised concerns that 2025 could still end up being one of the three warmest years ever recorded.

 

Experts from the UK Met Office, NASA, Berkeley Earth and Carbon Brief are now scrambling to update their climate models. Their initial projections didn’t anticipate such extreme temperatures so early in the year, but the new data is being fed into simulations to refine forecasts for the months ahead.

 

Whether 2025 continues this alarming trend remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: climate predictions are becoming increasingly difficult as global temperatures continue to reach new heights.

 

 

Image: Unsplash