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Scientists are sounding the alarm about a potential new Ice Age in Europe, caused by the possible collapse of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A study from the University of Copenhagen and the Niels Bohr Institute in Norway, published in the scientific journal ‘Nature Communications’, warns that this event could occur within the next decade.

 

The AMOC is a critical component of the global climate system, functioning like a giant conveyor belt that transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, where it cools, becomes denser, and sinks to return southward into the ocean’s depths. This process helps balance temperatures and climate in Europe and other regions of the North Atlantic, as well as warmer areas of the planet. It also oxygenates the seabed, allowing life to thrive in the ocean deep.

 

Rising global temperatures and melting glaciers, particularly in Greenland, are introducing large volumes of freshwater into the North Atlantic. However, saltier water is denser, and freshwater interferes with both elements, slowing or stopping the AMOC process from sinking. Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research notes that there is a 35-45% chance that the AMOC will collapse in the 2030s, leading to severe cooling in Europe, similar to the Little Ice Age between the 14th and 19th centuries.

 

 

The implications of such a change would be severe, affecting not only the climate but also agriculture, water supply, infrastructure and the overall economy. A drop in temperatures of 3°C per decade is estimated, turning Spain and the rest of Europe into an “uninhabitable” place. Cities not accustomed to winter conditions would have to adapt their infrastructure to deal with snow and ice.

 

The study by the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen reinforces these concerns, using early warning signals based on increasing variance and autocorrelation to predict critical changes in the AMOC. Data indicate that the AMOC could collapse between 2025 and 2095 if current emissions and global warming trends continue.

 

While some scientists argue that there is not enough evidence to support this event, precedents in history, such as the bimodal nature of the AMOC and the Young Dryas and Heinrich events, suggest that the circulation of the AMOC has collapsed before, with significant global climate repercussions.

 

Mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects will be crucial to ensuring a sustainable and liveable future for the European continent and the entire world.

 

 

Image: Copernicus Climate Change Service